The Mexican Standoff: US DOT Grounds Mexican Airline Expansion, Citing "Egregious" Breaches
The U.S. DOT has taken decisive retaliatory action, disapproving existing and proposed schedules for Aeromexico, Volaris, and VivaAerobus. The move is a direct response to Mexico's "egregious" breaches of the Air Transport Agreement, including a cargo ban and "arbitrary" slot confiscations at AICM.
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The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) has taken decisive, retaliatory action against multiple Mexican air carriers, escalating a long-simmering dispute over market access and fair competition. In an order (2025-10-13) issued and served on October 28, the DOT announced it is disapproving existing and proposed schedules for carriers, including Aeromexico, Volaris, and VivaAerobus.
This is not a technical or safety-based decision. It is a direct and calculated response to what the U.S. government describes as the Government of Mexico's (GoM) persistent failure to honor the 2015 U.S.-Mexico Air Transport Agreement (the Agreement).
The DOT's finding is blunt: the GoM has "impaired the operating rights of U.S. air carriers" and "denied U.S. air carriers a fair and equal opportunity to compete". This action targets the core of the U.S.-Mexico aviation market, specifically operations at Mexico City's two main airports, Benito Juarez International (MEX - AICM) and Felipe Angeles International (NLU).
The conflict is rooted in two primary actions taken by Mexican authorities.
The First Breach: The AICM Cargo Decree
The first major point of contention is a Presidential Decree issued by the GoM on February 2, 2023. This decree prohibited all-cargo operations at AICM , forcing the three U.S. air carriers operating all-cargo services there to cease their operations and transition to the newer, more distant Felipe Angeles International Airport (NLU) by September 1, 2023.
The DOT highlights what it views as a critical, anti-competitive imbalance: the decree explicitly exempted air carriers providing cargo services via combination operations (i.e., freight carried in the belly of passenger aircraft).
This carve-out allowed combination carriers to retain the significant "proximity and infrastructure advantages of MEX" , while all-cargo carriers were forced to incur "extra costs and other challenges" associated with the move to NLU.
The U.S. government has consistently argued that this forced relocation violates the Agreement. Specifically, it contravenes Annex 1(B), which establishes the right of U.S. carriers to operate all-cargo services to any point in Mexico, as well as Article 11(1), which guarantees a "fair and equal opportunity... to compete".
The Second Breach: "Arbitrary" Slot Confiscations at AICM
The second front in this dispute involves the management of takeoff and landing slots at a "saturated" Mexico City Airport.
On August 26, 2022, the AICM airport slot coordinator seized historic slots from three U.S. combination carriers (American, Delta, and United) as well as three Mexican carriers (Aeromexico, Viva Aerobus, and Volaris). The GoM's official justification was a "temporary" need to reduce operations from 61 to 52 per hour to allow for construction projects.
Then, on August 31, 2023, the GoM declared the AICM runways saturated and mandated a further reduction in operations, from 52 down to 43 per hour.
The DOT's order expresses deep skepticism regarding these justifications. It states that "the basis for these significant operational reductions remains unclear as nothing physically has changed with respect to either the terminals or the runways at MEX". The DOT notes that AICM had operated at a rate of 61 movements per hour since 2014.
For years, the U.S. has requested the analysis that led to the saturation decree, information on construction, and an assurance that U.S. carriers would recover their historic slots. According to the DOT, it has not received the requested information.
The Analysis: State-Directed Intervention for NLU
The DOT order strongly implies a different, unstated motive for the GoM's actions. It highlights that the "sudden capacity reductions at MEX" were implemented "at a time when the GoM was actively looking to increase traffic at NLU" —a flagship project of the previous Lopez Obrador administration that was "struggling to attract services".
The U.S. government views these moves not as legitimate operational adjustments but as "State-directed market interventions" designed to artificially bolster NLU at the expense of AICM and U.S. carrier rights.
The competitive landscape, in the DOT's view, has been deliberately skewed. The order points out that while U.S. carriers' service levels remain "frozen" , "certain Mexican air carriers whose slots were also confiscated at MEX have been able to add a significant number of new U.S. services from the airport by repurposing slots".
Furthermore, the DOT notes that "third-country combination carriers did not have to relinquish slots" , meaning U.S. carriers were "uniquely disadvantaged" by the "opaque," "arbitrary," and non-transparent slot revocations.
Too Little, Too Late: DOT Dismisses "Recent Progress"
The DOT order acknowledges recent engagements with Mexico's Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation (SICT). However, it systematically dismisses the resulting "progress" as insufficient.
- On Slot Returns: The DOT "welcomes" a recent indication from SICT that the confiscated U.S. carrier slots have been "returned". However, it frames this as a hollow victory, noting that U.S. carriers "have effectively been denied the ability to exercise any traffic rights associated with the slots for three years" and may not be able to "realize the benefit" of re-establishing service until the Summer 2026 traffic season.
- On Slot Management: The GoM has published new slot allocation guidelines and committed to acquiring an automated slot management system. The DOT labels these as mere "potential" advancements , stating that in the meantime, "the opaque slot allocation and management system and business practices remain in place at MEX".
- On the Cargo Decree: The DOT's assessment here is its most severe. It cites an "outright refusal of SICT and the GoM to rescind the Decree" , calling it an "egregious negative impact" and a "direct denial of a valuable bilateral right". The department concludes there appears to be "zero potential on the horizon for complete Agreement compliance" on this issue.
The Hammer Falls: A Roster of Disapproved Flights
Finding that the GoM's noncompliance "adversely affect[s] the public interest", the DOT has issued a multi-part disapproval of schedules.
Disapproved Existing Services
(Effective November 7, 2025)
- Aeromexico:
- Santa Lucia (NLU) – Houston (IAH)
- Santa Lucia (NLU) – McAllen (MFE)
Disapproved Proposed Services (Effective Immediately)
- Aeromexico:
Mexico City (AICM) – San Juan (SJU) (Scheduled to begin Oct. 29, 2025)
- Volaris:
Mexico City (AICM) – Newark (EWR) (Scheduled to begin Nov. 2, 2025)
- Viva Aerobus:
Nine new routes from Santa Lucia (NLU) to: Austin (AUS), New York (JFK), Chicago (ORD), Dallas/Ft. Worth (DFW), Denver (DEN), Houston (IAH), Los Angeles (LAX), Miami (MIA), and Orlando (MCO) (Scheduled for Nov-Dec 2025).
Blanket Ban on Future Expansion
(Effective Immediately)
Perhaps most significantly, the DOT has, until further notice, disapproved:
- All prospective schedules for any new proposed services between AJCM or NLU and any U.S. point by the captioned Mexican carriers.
- All prospective schedules for any proposed increase in frequency for existing services between AICM or NLU and any U.S. point.
The DOT insists its goal is "not the perpetuation or escalation of this situation". The message, however, is unambiguous: the block on Mexican carrier expansion from the Mexico City area will remain in place unless and until the GoM "return[s] to full compliance with its obligations under the Agreement".
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