Southwest Airlines Files for Certification to Expand Under Open Skies Agreements
Southwest Airlines has formally submitted an application to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) seeking a certificate of public convenience and necessity. This move would allow the airline to operate regular passenger, cargo, and mail services between the United States and a broad range of countries that maintain “Open Skies” agreements with Washington, as well as with future nations that may join such pacts.
Dated May 13, 2025, the request also includes a waiver application that would permit Southwest to begin these operations while the DOT processes the final certification, aiming for a swift rollout of its international expansion plans. The airline argues that broadening its services will boost competition in international markets and provide travelers with greater access to its low-fare model.
Southwest emphasizes in its filing that it has the qualifications, readiness, and capacity to carry out the proposed operations, referencing prior favorable determinations by the DOT. Currently, the airline operates an extensive domestic network across the U.S. and international routes to Canada and Mexico, but now seeks to massively expand that reach.
If approved, the authorization would allow Southwest to operate routes “between the United States and intermediate points to one or more points in Open Skies countries, and beyond, to the full extent of applicable air service agreements,” according to the document. The airline specifies that flights would be operated using Boeing 737-700, 737-800, and 737 MAX 8 aircraft.
Open Skies Agreements: The Key to New Markets
Open Skies agreements are critical diplomatic tools that liberalize civil aviation by removing government-imposed restrictions on airline decisions regarding routes, capacity (frequency and aircraft type), and pricing structures. Their goal is to enhance competition, expand travel options, and stimulate trade and tourism. The United States is currently party to over 130 such agreements globally.
Southwest’s application unveils an international growth strategy expected to roll out in phases, leveraging its fleet capabilities, robust low-cost model, and the unique appeal of each potential market.
Phase 1: Expansion in Adjacent, High-Synergy Markets (High Viability)
The first wave of expansion would likely target regions that are logical extensions of its current network—areas marked by strong demand for leisure and VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) travel, segments in which Southwest has excelled.
- Caribbean, Mexico, and Central America:
Southwest is expected to deepen its presence in these regions with new routes and increased frequencies to destinations such as Aruba, the Bahamas, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and expanded service to various Mexican cities. These are familiar operations for Southwest. While some overwater routes require ETOPS (Extended-range Twin-engine Operational Performance Standards) consideration, such requirements are generally less restrictive here than for transoceanic flights. - Northern and Central-Western South America (ETOPS not seen as a major constraint in this analysis):
Several South American countries fall within the range of the Boeing 737 MAX 8 from the southern U.S. - Colombia (Bogotá, Medellín, Cartagena), Ecuador (Quito, Guayaquil), and Peru (Lima and the northern region) emerge as top targets, with sizable markets and strong cultural and tourism ties to the U.S. Operations into high-altitude airports like Quito (approx. 2,800 meters) require specific performance analysis.
- Brazil (North and Northeast Regions):
Cities such as Manaus (MAO), Belém (BEL), Fortaleza (FOR), Recife (REC), and Salvador (SSA) are within practical reach of the 737 MAX 8 from Florida (approx. 1,900–2,800 nm). These areas offer unique tourism potential and significant VFR traffic. Brasília (BSB), the capital, also falls within this range. Southwest’s entry could stimulate demand with competitive fares, though it would face stiff competition from established local carriers and U.S. operators.
Brazil’s vast domestic market and connecting potential are attractive, but local operating costs and tax structures require detailed evaluation. Destinations further south like Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo remain challenging due to their distance. - Other Destinations:
Countries such as Guyana, Suriname, Bolivia (Santa Cruz de la Sierra – VVI), and Paraguay (Asunción – ASU, about 3,300 nm from Florida) also show potential. Entry decisions will depend on rigorous market demand analyses aligned with Southwest’s business model.
Phase 2: Exploring New Strategic Frontiers (Moderate Viability, Higher Complexity)
This stage would entail a bolder move, especially into transatlantic routes.
- Far Western Europe:
Here, ETOPS certification becomes a critical, non-negotiable requirement. - ETOPS Implications:
To operate over the North Atlantic, Southwest would need ETOPS 180-minute certification (or equivalent) for its 737 MAX aircraft and operations. This involves significant investment in training, maintenance protocols, and route planning to ensure proximity to diversion airports. ETOPS routes can be longer than direct ones, reducing effective range (estimated at 3,000–3,200 nm for such flights) and payload capacity.
Potential European Markets:
- Ireland (Dublin, Shannon): Strong U.S. ties and geographic advantage.
- Iceland (Reykjavik): A tourist hotspot and potential connector. Southwest’s planned partnership with Icelandair (set to begin February 2025) may serve as a learning opportunity or alternative to operating its own flights.
- Portugal (Lisbon, Porto) and Spain (northwest or Atlantic coast).
- United Kingdom (Scotland or alternative English cities outside major hubs).
Success in Europe would hinge on identifying high-demand leisure/VFR routes that Southwest could stimulate with its low-cost offerings, balancing the complexity and cost of ETOPS.
- Northwest Africa (Morocco, Cape Verde, Senegal):
Also subject to ETOPS and near the edge of viable range, these could be niche tourist markets. - Markets Likely to Remain Off the Immediate Radar:
Given Southwest’s current fleet and business model, most destinations in continental Europe beyond its western edge, the Southern Cone of South America (due to distance), much of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East are not considered viable short- or medium-term targets.
Conclusion
Southwest Airlines’ application to expand its international footprint under Open Skies agreements signals a clear intent to move beyond its traditional markets. While historically methodical, the company—nudged by Elliot-driven changes—may now be embracing a more agile posture. Consolidation in the Caribbean and Mexico, along with calculated expansion into northern and northeastern South America, especially key Brazilian markets, appears to be the most imminent and least complex next step.
A potential leap into transatlantic routes to Europe, though contingent on overcoming ETOPS challenges, could open a whole new chapter for Southwest, with the potential to reshape leisure traffic flows. The industry will be watching closely to see how this low-cost giant navigates its next global phase.
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