Retirement of 300 Regional Jets Paves Way for ATR's Turboprop Push in the U.S.
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The regional aviation market in the United States is facing a crucial turning point. The progressive retirement of the aging fleet of 50-seat regional jets (RJ50s) is creating a critical void that threatens to disconnect dozens of communities, but it also presents an opportunity for the introduction of more efficient aircraft.
New data presented at the ATR Regional Air Connectivity Summit (RACS) in Washington D.C., supported by analysis from Georgia Tech and the Seabury Airline Strategy Group, projects a potential demand for up to 300 ATR aircraft over the next 20 years to meet current and emerging mobility needs in the country.
A study by Georgia Tech reveals a direct consequence of the retirement of these jets: with nearly 300 units set to exit the market in the next decade, almost one in ten regional airports could lose all scheduled air service. This trend would worsen regional isolation and reduce economic opportunities in underserved areas.
"Our research shows that the retirement of 50-seat jets is not just an airline issue; it's a national connectivity challenge," stated Dr. Cedric Justin, a senior researcher at Georgia Tech's Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory. "Without a viable replacement, entire communities risk being cut off from the air transport network."
Despite the decline of RJ50s, the need for regional connectivity remains robust. Seabury's analysis identifies an initial demand for 200 aircraft. "The routes were closed, but the demand didn't disappear. We found a market potential of up to 130 routes; what's missing now is the right aircraft," explained Rich Scheff, Managing Director at Seabury ASG.
Additionally, ATR's own study on the travel patterns of 80 million U.S. residents highlights a demand for at least 100 more aircraft. This analysis reveals a potential market of 12 million additional regional air passengers per year on routes under 400 nautical miles that currently have no direct flights.
ATR's Solution for the U.S. Market
To respond to this opportunity, ATR has developed a configuration specifically for the U.S. market. This design includes a new three-class cabin, a front passenger door compatible with jet bridges, high-speed in-flight connectivity, and more space for carry-on luggage.
Confidence in the product is already materializing. Aleutian Airways has announced plans to introduce ATR aircraft into its fleet, and JSX, a public charter operator, has signed a letter of intent for up to 25 ATRs. "The U.S. regional market is at a crossroads," commented Alexis Vidal, Senior Vice President Commercial at ATR. "This is about offering a proven, efficient solution to reconnect communities and grant them quick access to economic opportunities across the country."
This will provide a boost that ATR has struggled to find in the United States. Currently, according to data obtained by Aviacionline through Cirium Fleet Analyzer, there are only 41 ATR aircraft in service with U.S. airlines, all in a freighter configuration. Mountain Air Cargo is the largest operator with 21 aircraft, followed by Empire Airlines with 13, and Gulf and Caribbean Cargo with 5. Two others are in the hands of private operators. In addition to the aforementioned orders, FedEx is set to receive 15 ATR 72-600s, plus another 10 on option.
The manufacturer is also advancing sustainability. By 2030, ATR plans to operate the world's first hybrid-electric regional aircraft using an ATR 72-600 as a test platform under the EU's Clean Aviation program, and its aircraft are already 100% compatible with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
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