US DOT Proposes 'Symmetrical' Ban on Mexican Belly Cargo at MEX- AICM, Escalating Air Transport Dispute
The US DOT is escalating its air transport dispute with Mexico, proposing a targeted ban on Mexican carrier 'belly cargo' at MEX- AICM. This move is direct retaliation for Mexico's 2023 ban on US all-cargo carriers and pointedly mirrors the GoM's original 108-business-day deadline.
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The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) is escalating its dispute with the Government of Mexico (GoM) over air transport rights, moving from procedural penalties to a direct and targeted economic sanction.
In an Order to Show Cause issued on October 28, 2025, the DOT announced its tentative decision to ban specific Mexican air carriers from transporting any cargo on their passenger flights—often called "belly cargo"—between Mexico City's Benito Juarez International Airport (MEX- AICM) and the United States.
This proposed ban is a direct, retaliatory response to the GoM's February 2023 Presidential Decree, which prohibited all-cargo operations at MEX- AICM, forcing U.S. all-cargo carriers to relocate.
The U.S. government views the GoM's action as a violation of the 2015 U.S.-Mexico Air Transport Agreement (the Agreement). After months of failed diplomatic efforts, the DOT is now proposing a measure designed to create a symmetrical, and likely painful, competitive disadvantage for Mexican carriers.
The DOT's order, Docket DOT-OST-2025-1920, proposes to amend the foreign air carrier permits and exemptions of six Mexican airlines:
- Aerovias de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. (Aeromexico)
- Aerolitoral, S.A. de C.V. (Aeromexico Connect)
- Aeroenlaces Nacionales, S.A. de C.V. (VivaAerobus)
- Aerotransportes Rafilher, S.A. de C.V. (Aerus)
- Concesionaria Vuela Compania de Aviacion, S.A.P.I. de C.V. (Volaris)
- Link Conexion Aerea S.A. de C.V. (TAR Aerolineas)
The proposed new condition for these carriers is explicit:
“Until further order of the Department, the holder shall not transport cargo in the conduct of any of its international scheduled and/or charter services in foreign air transportation between Benito Juarez International Airport in Mexico City, on the one hand, and any point in the United States, on the other hand.”
This is a tentative decision, not a final one. The DOT is giving all interested parties 14 calendar days to file comments and an additional seven days for replies. If no objections are filed, the order will become final, subject to Presidential review.
The '108 Business Day' Message
The most telling detail of the DOT's proposal is not just the ban itself, but its timeline. The Department proposes that the condition will become effective 108 business days after a final order is served.
This number is not arbitrary. It is a precise, symbolic, and punitive echo of Mexico's original action: When the GoM issued its February 2, 2023, Decree to ban all-cargo operations at MEX- AICM, it initially provided air carriers with exactly 108 business days to cease those operations.
The DOT is, in effect, engaging in a policy of "symmetrical retaliation." It is imposing the exact same transition period on Mexican combination carriers that Mexico imposed on U.S. all-cargo carriers. The message is unmistakable: the disruption and costs U.S. carriers were forced to endure will now be mirrored for Mexican carriers.
The Root of the Conflict: A "Competitive Imbalance"
This dispute began with the GoM's 2023 Decree prohibiting all-cargo operations at MEX. This move forced air carriers providing dedicated cargo services, including three U.S. carriers, to cease their AICM operations entirely. These carriers subsequently transferred their flights to other airports, such as Felipe Angeles International Airport (NLU).
The critical issue, in the DOT's view, is that the GoM's Decree explicitly exempted carriers providing cargo services through combination operations (i.e., belly cargo on passenger flights).
This created what the DOT terms a "competitive imbalance". Mexican carriers like Aeromexico and Volaris could continue to transport cargo to and from the highly desirable MEX- AICM market, benefiting from its "proximity and infrastructure advantages". Meanwhile, the U.S. all-cargo carriers were forced to transition to NLU, incurring "extra costs, limitations, and other challenges".
The DOT has consistently maintained that Mexico's decree is "in sharp conflict" with its obligations under the 2015 U.S.-Mexico Air Transport Agreement.
The Department's argument rests on three specific points:
- Annex 1(B): The decree conflicts with the right of U.S. air carriers to operate all-cargo services to any point in Mexico.
- Article 11(1): The "competitive imbalance" created by the decree violates the "fair and equal opportunity for the designated airlines of both Parties to compete".
Article 11(2): The decree constitutes a unilateral limit on the "volume of traffic, frequency or regularity of service, or the aircraft type or types operated" by U.S. airlines, which is prohibited by the Agreement.
A History of Escalation and Failed Diplomacy
This Order to Show Cause is not a sudden move. It is the culmination of a long-standing disagreement that diplomacy failed to resolve.
The DOT notes it "continually expressed its opposition to the Decree" through:
- A series of letters to the Mexican Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation (SICT).
- Technical government-to-government consultations.
- Other bilateral engagements, including a meeting with then-President of Mexico Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Throughout this period, the DOT "repeatedly insisted that the GoM rescind the Decree".
The GoM's response, according to the DOT, has been dismissive. SICT "continues to defend the imposition of the Decree" and "erroneously claims that it is consistent with the Agreement". An October 3, 2025, letter from SICT summarily stated the decree was consistent with the Agreement and the Chicago Convention. The DOT concludes that SICT has "failed to substantively address the Department's concerns".
This led to the DOT's first retaliatory steps on July 19, 2025:
- Order 2025-7-10: Required Mexican carriers to obtain specific prior approval for any charter flights using large aircraft.
- Order 2025-7-11: Imposed Phase 1 schedule filing requirements on all Mexican carriers.
Concurrently with this new order, the DOT is also issuing Order 2025-10-13, which imposes even stricter "Phase 2 Notification and Schedule Disapproval" on certain Mexican carriers. The DOT also noted that SICT has been "similarly uncooperative" regarding the separate issue of U.S. carrier slots at MEX- AICM.
The Endgame: Admitted Disruption for a Specific Goal
The DOT is fully aware of the collateral damage its proposed ban will cause.
The order states, "Prohibiting belly-cargo operations at MEX is clearly not in the short-term interest of shippers and consumers in the U.S.-Mexico market". It further acknowledges this action "would further disrupt the air cargo marketplace".
However, the Department argues that the "ongoing prohibition of all-cargo operations at MEX and the corresponding competitive imbalance... is untenable". The "overriding goal," the DOT states, is to "persuade the Government of Mexico to rescind its prohibition against U.S. all-cargo carriers operating at MEX".
The DOT has provided a clear off-ramp: It is "prepared to revisit the action proposed in this Order once the Government of Mexico fully restores the option for U.S. all-cargo carriers to operate at MEX".
The ball is now firmly in Mexico's court. The U.S. has moved from procedural complaints to a proposal of direct economic sanctions, complete with a 108-business-day timeline that serves as a pointed reminder of the action that started this conflict.
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