In 2027, the Gripen lease contract will expire and the Czech Republic is looking for a replacement. The candidates are the Lockheed Martin F-35 and the Saaab Gripen E. But Sweden has made a new offer, impossible to ignore.
The Czech government would start negotiations with the various bidders in July for the future acquisition of two squadrons of fighter jets, by the time the lease of the JAS-39 Gripen C/D JAS-39s ends in 2027.
According to several sources, the U.S. stealth fighter would be the favorite candidate within various circles of the Czech government and the Czech Armed Forces.
But according to the Seznam Zprávy (SZ) news media, the Swedish ambassador to the Czech Republic, Fredrik Jörgensen, made an offer of close to zero cost. During an interview, he said that the Czech Republic can keep the Gripens it leased from Sweden free of charge:
“It is possible to transfer these now-leased aircraft to the Czech Republic at virtually zero cost. They have basically been paid for, it’s like leasing a car. Basically, we would consider them paid for and, on this basis, we could expand the system of cooperation with the Gripen C-series or further with the Gripen E-series.”
Petr Fiala’s government wants to address in July which fighter aircraft Czech pilots will use when the lease of the current Gripen ends. There is a choice between American or Swedish fighters. The Swedes are offering to keep the current Gripens almost for free.
The future of Czech combat aviation will be discussed at the Straka Academy next month.
“The government is expected to discuss the future of the supersonic air force probably in July. It will be a political decision based on the recommendation of army experts, who are evaluating possible options,” Defense Minister Jana Černochová (ODS) told Seznam Zprávy.
Arguments in favor of the F-35
Both the Americans and the Swedes are interested in keeping this multi-billion-dollar contract, which not only seeks to replace the current squadron of Gripen C/D fighters leased from Sweden, but also aims to form a second squadron, with the acquisition of another 12 aircraft. It is already clear that the Czech Republic does not want to continue leasing.
While the Minister of Defense did not make her preferences public, there are other government players who did, such as Deputy Speaker of the House Jan Bartosek (KDU-ČSL) who is leaning towards the F-35: “Yes, let’s get the best for our military that is on the market. The platform makes sense to me because many neighboring countries will have it.”
Interoperability and shared logistics with other regional users of the F-35 are important considerations, as, in fact, the Lockheed Martin aircraft is becoming the de facto European standard fighter, being operational in the UK, Netherlands, Italy, Denmark and Norway. Belgium, Poland, Switzerland and Finland will be added to this list in the coming years.
Moreover, according to some military analysts, the F-35 has the advantage of being a state-of-the-art aircraft, which will be operational and in force until 2070. Therefore, the acquisition and maintenance cost, which is initially higher than for the Gripen, will be diluted over a life cycle of up to 40 years.
Arguments in favor of Swedish continuity
The Swedes argue that continuing with the Gripen line, implies a smooth transition to the E model. Czech pilots know the machines well, mechanics are familiar with them and the infrastructure is adapted to their use.
Military analyst Dušan Rovenský (consulted by SZ) agrees that the transition to the new Gripen would be easier for the Czech Air Force:
“If the Czech Republic decides to buy Gripen, training and logistical support would be simplified. The pilots of the current Gripen C/D would certainly be converted to the Gripen E/F much faster than to a completely new aircraft type. Likewise, there would be no need to acquire new ground support assets; the current ones would suffice. Both of these things would certainly reduce the purchase price of the new Gripens,” says Rovenský.
In turn, MP Radovan Vích, also consulted by SZ, argues that he would have kept the Gripen, especially in view of the financial requirements of operating the US aircraft: “There is already talk here that we need 24 aircraft, preferably the F-35. If this decision is made this year, it is the end of the modernization of the army’s ground forces and the development of capabilities. One hour of flying the JAS-39 Gripen costs about $5,000, one hour of flying the F-35 costs $30,000. To make sense, each pilot would have to fly 150 flight hours per year.”
How this dilemma has been resolved in other competitions
This is not the first time that the Gripen has had to face the F-35A in an international competition, as both are modern and capable fighter models, representing different, almost opposite, approaches to the defense challenges for the coming decades.
Arguments of the operational cost and flight hour value of one model and the other are recurring from this discussion. And so far, the discussion has ended up being settled in favor of Lockheed Martin’s product.
For example, according to the Swiss evaluation commission that ended up recommending the F-35, the U.S. stealth fighter was the best cost/benefit option in the long term. During the evaluation, the F-35A showed the highest overall benefit.
In Finland and Canada the results were similar, with the F-35 proving to be the best cost/benefit investment, if its full life-cycle economics were taken into account.
We will have to wait for the recommendations of the Czech Republic’s evaluation commission to see which of the two fighters is the favorite. The arguments in favor of one or the other option, are reasonable; and even tempting, considering the latest Swedish offer.
Will the Gripen be able to break the streak and turn around a match-up in which, so far, it has always lost?
